The future of provisioning ecosystem services in the Caatinga under the influence of climate change

Abstract

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are globally important for both biodiversity and the ecosystem services (ES) they provide to local populations. Brazil’s Caatinga, the world’s largest and most densely populated SDTF, supports numerous vulnerable communities that rely on native tree species for essential uses. Yet, this unique biome is undergoing rapid degradation and is among the most vulnerable to climate change, making large-scale ecological restoration increasingly urgent. As climate change alters species' ecological niches, anticipating future shifts is vital to sustaining both biodiversity and human well-being. Here, we model the future distribution of 29 Caatinga tree species linked to 13 economic and ecological uses, including restoration, agroforestry, civil construction, and honey production, under the two most likely climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) and two timeframes (2021–2040 and 2081–2100). By aggregating species projections by their use type, we estimate the future spatial availability of provisioning ES and restoration potential. Model performance was high (μ-AUC > 0.7), especially for species used in civil construction and agroforestry. While most uses are projected to lose suitable area over time, restoration maintains the broadest extent, positioning it as a key integrative strategy. Synergies between restoration and other uses, especially agroforestry, industrial applications, and landscaping, are initially strong but diminish under more extreme scenarios. Temporal comparisons show that ecosystem service losses are largely scenario-driven, this means that even long-term outcomes under an optimistic pathway outperform near-term projections under pessimistic trajectories. Rather than presenting restoration and use as competing goals, our results highlight opportunities for alignment, offering spatially explicit insights to support climate-resilient, use-integrated restoration strategies across semi-arid regions undergoing rapid environmental and socio-economic change.