Dinâmica de valor: o efeito da estrutura de capital e da política de dividendos no setor de Utilities em mercados emergentes

Abstract

This study explores the influence of capital structure and dividend policy on the market value of companies in the Utilities sector in emerging markets, focusing on the BRICS countries from 2018 to 2023. The research aims to fill gaps in the financial literature, which typically concentrates on developed markets that are more stable and predictable. In contrast, emerging markets face challenges such as high volatility, weak governance, and reliance on external capital, factors that can impact the effectiveness of traditional financial strategies. The sample consists of 266 companies, with data obtained from the Eikon Refinitiv platform, complemented by annual reports and stock exchange records. The methodology employs a quantitative, descriptive, and explanatory approach, utilizing econometric modeling to analyze the relationship between financial leverage, dividend policy, and market value. The study also considers the impact of regional macroeconomic variables, such as inflation and GDP, following a hypothetical-deductive approach. Capital structure and dividend policy are regarded as crucial factors for market value, especially in riskier environments typical of emerging markets. The analyzed period includes significant economic events, allowing an assessment of corporate resilience in response to external shocks. The results indicate that financial leverage positively impacts market value, whereas dividend policy has a negative effect, suggesting that investors associate high dividends with lower future growth. The interaction between these variables proved to be complex, requiring careful analysis, particularly in regulated sectors. Additionally, inflation emerged as a relevant factor, increasing risk perception. This study contributes to understanding the effects of capital structure and dividend policy in emerging markets, providing insights for academics and managers to develop financial strategies better suited to volatile and uncertain environments.