Previsão do consumo de antidepressivos no estado do Rio Grande do Norte: uma abordagem de séries temporais

Abstract

The current society suffers from several disorders of the psychic tract. Among them, depression stands out, which is configured as a chronic and recurrent disorder associated with functional disability. Antidepressants from the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) class and the selective serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs) class are often used as a treatment for this disorder. Fluoxetine and Venlafaxine are the antidepressants of each class, respectively, which have been on the market for the longest time, being of fundamental importance for the pharmaceutical industry and for the Brazilian Ministry of Health their forecast consumption. In this way, the objective of this work is to analyze, through a time series approach, the consumption of Fluoxetine and Venlafaxine in the state of Rio Grande do Norte between the years 2014 and 2020, as well as to carry out the prediction of consumption for the year 2021. The raw data of the work will be taken from the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (ANVISA). The adjustment of the exponential smoothing methods and ARIMA models is carried out for each series of consumption with subsequent comparison between predictions provided by the adjustments. From the results obtained, we observed that for these dataset the ARIMA model is more suitable in relation to exponential smoothing methods, and indicate the need for future work, aiming at obtaining better forecasts.