O Continente do fogo: desenvolvimento de um índice climático para estimar a probabilidade de incêndios florestais na África

Abstract

Wildfires in Africa are frequent events, often intensified by climatic factors such as high temperatures, low relative humidity, reduced precipitation, and increased evaporation. In this study, we developed a Fire Risk Index (FRI) based on climate variables derived from ERA5 reanalysis data to estimate the probability of wildfires across the African continent. The index was applied at both monthly and spatial scales, enabling the identification of areas with higher fire susceptibility. Results revealed a concentration of high fire risk particularly in central and southern Africa during dry periods, aligning with patterns reported in the scientific literature. The proposed tool demonstrated potential for supporting environmental monitoring and fire management strategies, providing a foundation for preventive actions and public policy. Although the index does not incorporate ignition sources or land cover data, it offers a solid basis for future research and applications in diverse ecological and climatic contexts.