Projeção de recurso eólico no Nordeste do Brasil

Abstract

From the perspective of energy production for supplying the domestic market in Brazil, climate projections for the end of the century, particularly regarding wind variability in the Northeast region of Brazil (NEB), are of utmost importance for the planning of new projects and investments in the region. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the patterns of wind speed observed and simulated over the NEB, considering the present period (1995-2004, 2004-2014) and future scenarios for the near future (2040-2050) and far future (2090-2099) projected using dynamic regional climate modeling. The regional aspects of wind speed for the presente were analyzed using ERA5 reanalysis, and the projected regional changes were assessed using the RegCM4.7.1 regional climate model. For local-level analyses, data collected from 9 conventional surface stations of the National Institute of Meteorology were used. The evaluation of simulations at the station level employed descriptive statistics, Pearson's correlation coefficient, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and the bias of wind speed at 10m. The results suggest that both, the global model (ERA5) and the RegCM4.7.1, overestimate wind speed in the present period; however, the regional model exhibits higher overestimation. The most pronounced discrepancies occurred in coastal areas, such as Natal, probably due the underestimation of land and sea breeze effects by the models. Consequently, the regional model projected a reorganization of wind patterns, with weakening along coastal areas and intensification in some inland areas, highlighting dynamic changes in the region's wind systems.