Análise espaço-temporal da frequência de homicídios nos bairros de Natal-RN no período de 2011 a 2021

Abstract

In this dissertation, a retrospective study is conducted on the number of Intentional Lethal Violent Crimes in the neighborhoods of Natal from 2011 to 2021. Specifically, it investigates whether there is a causal relationship between the number of intentional homicides and a series of factors, such as demographic, socioeconomic, geographical location, and infrastructure investment characteristics in the neighborhoods. Additionally, it examines whether the year 2020, during which mobility restrictions were imposed in the city, influenced the occurrence of homicides, as well as whether there were significant dierences in the frequency of this event according to the dierent administrations of the state of Rio Grande do Norte that occurred during the study period. The statistical method used to test the research hypotheses is the space-time model for area data, which is structured with Conditional Autoregressive Priors of the space-time components. This model uses the Bayesian paradigm, and the estimation of its parameters is carried out through the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. It was found that factors such as Average Nominal Income, Illiteracy rate, Population Density, and the number of Enterprises in the region were significant for the increase in these crimes. It was also observed that, during the analysis of the state government administrations over the study period, the last administration had a positive impact on the reduction of homicides. Furthermore, in comparison with the North Zone, both the East Zone and the South Zone recorded a significant reduction in homicide rates, unlike what was observed in the West Zone.