A influência das classificações ESG na acurácia dos analistas em países emergentes

Abstract

The objective of this dissertation was to analyze the impact of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) ratings on the accuracy of financial analysts' earnings forecasts in emerging countries. The study aimed to address the research hypothesis: there is a significant and negative relationship between ESG ratings and the accuracy of financial analysts' forecasts for companies in emerging countries. The study used a sample of 550 companies from eight emerging countries (Brazil, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates) that adopt IFRS and have ESG data for the period from 2014 to 2023. Data were collected from the Refinitiv Eikon platform, excluding the financial sector due to its specific characteristics. The results revealed that ESG as a whole did not have a significant impact on the accuracy of earnings forecasts. The environmental dimension was the only one that supported the initial hypothesis, indicating that superior performance in this area may reduce the average forecast errors. However, the increase in forecast dispersion suggests that issues such as greenwashing may negatively influence confidence in the information. The social pillar stood out with the highest average among the ESG dimensions, reflecting a relative improvement in corporate social practices in emerging countries. However, this dimension did not significantly influence analysts' forecast accuracy, possibly due to the complexity and subjectivity of social metrics. Governance, despite showing reasonable performance, also did not significantly impact forecast accuracy but suggested a trend of greater forecast dispersion for companies with better governance practices. The complexity of ESG metrics, the lack of standardization in disclosures, and the heterogeneity of emerging markets help explain these results. The findings highlight the importance of considering the quality and consistency of disclosed ESG information, especially in emerging countries where regulation may be less stringent.