Mortalidade por câncer do colo do útero no estado do Rio Grande do Norte, no período de 1996 a 2010: tendência temporal e projeções até 2030

Abstract

Objective: to analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in the state of Rio Grande do Norte and its health microregions from 1996 to 2010, as well as to make projections for five-year periods from 2011 to 2030. Methods: this was an ecological time series study; negative binomial regression was used to analyze trends and projections. Results: rates above 5.0 deaths per 100,000 women were observed in all the micro-regions, with a stationary trend in the state as a whole and an upward trend in the micro-regions with the worst socioeconomic conditions; projections indicated reduction in mortality rates in the state, from 5.95/100,000 women (2006-2010) to 3.67 (2026-2030), although a 22% increase in the absolute number of deaths is expected. Conclusion: although a reduction in mortality rates is projected, they continue to be high, indicating the need for review and strengthening of the state’s cervical cancer control program