Desenvolvimento e teste de um modelo estatístico de identificação das proporções de água produzida em zonas de produção de um campo maduro de petróleo

Abstract

This study investigates the chemical species produced water from the reservoir areas of oil production in the field of Monte Alegre (onshore production) with a proposal of developing a model applied to the identification of the water produced in different zones or groups of zones.Starting from the concentrations of anions and cátions from water produced as input parameters in Linear Discriminate Analysis, it was possible to estimate and compare the model predictions respecting the particularities of their methods in order to ascertain which one would be most appropriate. The methods Resubstitution, Holdout Method and Lachenbruch were used for adjustment and general evaluation of the built models. Of the estimated models for Wells producing water for a single production area, the most suitable method was the "Holdout Method and had a hit rate of 90%. Discriminant functions (CV1, CV2 and CV3) estimated in this model were used to modeling new functions for samples ofartificial mixtures of produced water (producedin our laboratory) and samples of mixtures actualproduced water (water collected inwellsproducingmore thanonezone).The experiment with these mixtures was carried out according to a schedule experimental mixtures simplex type-centroid also was simulated in which the presence of water from steam injectionin these tanks fora part of amostras. Using graphs of two and three dimensions was possible to estimate the proportion of water in the production area