Análise de valuation: aplicação do método do fluxo de caixa descontado com a simulação de Monte Carlo para mensurar o valor intrínseco da Klabin e reduzir incertezas

Abstract

Business valuation is a key practice in the corporate and financial markets for defining the intrinsic value of assets, enabling investors to make more informed decisions. This study conducts a qualitative and quantitative analysis of Klabin S.A., a leading company in the production and export of paper and packaging materials, listed on the Brazilian stock exchange, with the aim of determining the intrinsic value of its shares through the application of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method combined with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to mitigate uncertainties inherent in the projective nature of the DCF. Simplified, the methodological procedures encompass crucial steps for determining a valuation, organized in that order: 1) Qualitative study of the company; 2) Collection of financial and macroeconomic data; 3) Definition of the Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) method; 4) Projection of the 4Q24 closing; 5) Calculation of the Discount Rate (WACC); 6) Projection of the company’s cash flows; 7) Determination of Klabin’s valuation; 8) Application of Monte Carlo Simulation; 9) Analysis of the final results. The main results consist of the intrinsic share value calculated at BRL 4.67 using the base DCF method, along with the average share value of BRL 4.74 found by applying MCS, allowing for a comparative analysis between the results of both methods and the market prices to visualize potential appreciation. The study emphasizes that, although the results depend on projected assumptions, the applied methodology provides a consistent analysis. The contributions include the formulation of a series of methodological procedures and the presentation of replicable concepts for valuation studies in other contexts, in addition to providing a critical evaluation of Klabin’s financial outlook.