Mortalidade por Sarcoma de Kaposi no Brasil: Tendências atuais e projeções até 2030

Abstract

Objective: to analyze mortality trends from Kaposi’s sarcoma, with projections up to 2030, and an HIV epidemic in Brazil. Material and methods: An ecological study based on the year 2001 to 2015 and data on the HIV epidemic of the World Health Organization for the period 1990 to 2017. The trend was analyzed by the Joinpoint regression, and Nordpred was used for the projections. Results: Kaposi’s sarcoma mortality rate for women was 0.025 deaths / 100,000 inhabitants, and 0.046 deaths / 100,000 inhabitants for men, in the year 2015. The annual percentage increase in interest rates was 6.1% and 2.8% for males and females, respectively. The projections for 2030 indicate rates of increase of 100% over the year 2015. The trend and prevalence of HIV since 1995, to a lesser extent in the period 2000 to 2017. Conclusion: the mortality trend due to Kaposi’s sarcoma is increasing, which will be accentuated until 2030, and may be related to the increase in the prevalence of HIV and the reduction in the trend of mortality by AIDS in Brazil