Determinantes da expansão internacional em organizações de rápido crescimento: modelagem bayesiana dos fatores de influência

Abstract

High-growth firms are innovation drivers, fostering the development of new business models across various regions. Both developed and emerging economies recognize their potential and implement incentive policies. International expansion is a crucial step in this process but also represents a complex challenge. To make more assertive strategic decisions, managers can rely on tools such as Bayesian Networks (BNs). This technology allows modeling the uncertainty inherent in decision-making processes, helping companies identify opportunities, minimize risks, and optimize their resources. By combining the innovative capacity of high-growth firms with the analytical power of BNs, companies can achieve more sustainable and profitable growth. This study seeks to understand how factors influencing the strategic decision of international expansion behave in high-growth firms, considering their location, the gender of their CEOs/founders, and firm size. The main objective of the research is to analyze the determinants of the strategic choices of internationalization of high-growth firms, through Bayesian Networks, considering location, manager gender, and firm size. The research was divided into three stages, considering Bayesian inference on each factor in strategic choices. Firms with digital business models, annual growth above 20%, and investment potential were included. This study analyzed 1,578 high-growth firms in five major European and American centers, based on data (dataset) derived from networking events between 2016 and 2020. Using Bayesian Networks, the research identified significant differences in management style across different geographic locations, manager genders, and firm sizes. The results highlight the importance of factors for expansion strategies, supporting decisions on internationalization and helping managers make more assertive decisions about internationalization, as well as providing valuable insights for investors, academics, and policymakers. This study presents a set of significant contributions to the field of internationalization of high-growth firms. By providing solid empirical evidence, using an innovative methodology, and contributing to the theoretical development of the area, the research represents a relevant advance in knowledge on this topic.