Impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre os recursos de energia eólica na América do Sul a partir das projeções climáticas do CMIP6

Abstract

With the growing increase in investments in wind energy, research has been carried out in several places to analyze how this energy source can be affected by climate change. Thus, the general objective of this work was to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on wind energy resources in South America, through the latest CMIP6 future climate projections, obtaining differences between past, present and future scenarios of wind energy density. The research was carried out using data from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) of monthly surface wind, in which they were used, and obtained from the website of the “Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)” for 5 General Circulation Models of the Atmosphere (MCGA) with horizontal resolutions equal to or less than 1.25° in latitude and longitude and with data for future climate scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. All the models' wind data grids were remapped to a common grid following an área-weighted bilinear interpolation, the data were extrapolated to the height of 100 meters by the wind energy law and from them the wind density was calculated. Data validation was performed using the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis (C3S) which were compared with the CMIP6 ensemble. Wind energy density was assessed by analyzing the differences between the baseline (1979–2005) and future periods (2046-2072 and 2073-2099). In general, the results showed the same baseline wind density pattern for future scenarios with increases, mainly in scenario 8.5. The greatest variations in the future averages in relation to the historical ones were projected in the East of the Northeast, followed by the North of the Northeast of Brazil and Patagonia-South of Argentina, it is also emphasized that this variation is of growth in the averages.