Probabilidades de ocorrência de eventos de precipitação extrema associados aos desastres naturais no leste do Nordeste do Brasil

Abstract

A sub-region characterized by high population density and vulnerability to events such as flooding, inundation, and landslides. Understanding the behavior of extreme precipitation events is essential for planning public policies and guiding measures that mitigate risks, which can affect various sectors of society.This study aims to investigate the relationship between the probabilities of extreme precipitation occurrence and natural disasters in the eastern Northeast of Brazil. The analysis uses precipitation estimates from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) product and records from the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (Cemaden).Statistical methods, such as the generalized extreme value distribution with quantile regression, will be applied to estimate the probabilities of occurrence and return periods of extreme events. Additionally, descriptive statistics will be used to identify regions vulnerable to natural disasters associated with extreme precipitation.The results indicate that precipitation maxima exhibit high seasonal and spatial variability, with the periods from March to May (MAM) and June to August (JJA) recording the highest indices. Coastal cities show higher probabilities of precipitation occurrence of 30 mm/day (> 80%), 50 mm/day (> 70%), and 100 mm/day (> 60%), along with higher estimates for different return periods, highlighting the high exposure of these regions to natural disasters.This is particularly evident during the rainy season, where a higher frequency of disasters is observed between the states of Pernambuco and Alagoas, with mass movements being the most frequently recorded events. The study will provide relevant information for the development of public policies and risk mitigation strategies, contributing to the reduction of disaster impacts in the eastern Northeast of Brazil.