Modelo integrado para previsão e alocação de recursos em projetos acadêmicos por meio do Life Cycle Canvas, CECS e PERT

Abstract

The Brazilian educational scenario faces important challenges, especially in Federal Higher Education Institutions (IFES), due to economic crises and budget restrictions. At the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), these challenges directly impact the execution of academic projects. Given this, this study proposed an integrated model for forecasting and allocating financial resources in academic projects integrating the Life Cycle Canvas (LCC), the Cost Estimate Classification System (CECS) and the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). The model seeks to improve the financial management of projects, reducing the need for contractual amendments and increasing the accuracy of cost estimates, based on the maturity of the project. Financial scenarios (optimistic, probable and pessimistic) were simulated, based on PERT estimates, classified according to the CECS and evaluated according to the maturity of the project, inserted in the LCC. The results indicated that the model is suitable for planning and managing academic projects, generating budget variations of up to 5%, in line with the amendments recorded during the project period. Although the model was tested on a single type of project, its potential for application to a larger set of academic projects is promising. The implementation of the model can assist coordinators in preparing budgets and technical justifications, promoting efficiency and transparency in the management of financial resources, in addition to contributing to the success of academic projects.