Análise de índices de vulnerabilidade física com uso de geotecnologias na região da Barreira do Inferno

Abstract

Studies of variation in mean sea level predict that by the end of the 21st century about 95% of the ocean will experience a rise in mean sea level, with a projection of average increase of 63 cm until 2100 in consequence of ocean warming and Melting glaciers. The determination of the physical vulnerability of a region makes it possible to recognize the causes of the environmental changes and the adequate planning of the sustainable measures for the restructuring of the environments in order to minimize the impacts. This study aims to determine the physical vulnerability in the Barreira do Inferno region by analyzing the vulnerability maps, making it possible to identify and evaluate the distribution of vulnerability levels in the area. For this, the indices of natural and environmental vulnerability were calculated by cross-referencing the vulnerability data of the geoenvironmental units (geology, geomorphology, soils, vegetation and usage and occupation) and the index of coastal vulnerability to erosion from the physical and dynamic variables (geomorphology, coastline rate of change, declivity, coastal urban infrastructure, current coastline activity or use, and prediction of coastline variation, significant tidal range, wave height, and global SLR) for three different scenarios of climate change, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that for both indices of natural and environmental vulnerability, the values obtained were very low, low, medium and high vulnerability with the most pessimistic scenario for the IVN, presenting the highest percentage of high vulnerability in about 40 % of area. For the IVC, the area presented values between low and medium vulnerability with the worst projections for the IVC-USGS method with 100% of the coastline under average vulnerability.