O processo de urbanização e sua influência no aumento da temperatura média na cidade de Natal

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the variation in temperature in the city of Natal, focusing on the period from 1986 to 2023, using data provided by the climatological station of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). The research seeks to correlate changes in the average air temperature with the urbanization process occurring in the city. To achieve this objective, daily temperature data were collected for the study period, from which climate variability indices were calculated, and statistical trend tests, such as GAM regression and the Mann-Kendall Test, were applied. The analysis of these data reveals that the city of Natal experienced an increase in its average temperature of approximately 0.91°C between 1986 and 2023. Additionally, this period saw a population growth of 80.2% in the city from 1980 to 2022. This study seeks to explain and characterize the urbanization process of Natal and its implications for the increase in average temperature, aiming to understand phenomena associated with human occupation of the territory, such as heat islands and thermal inversion. It was observed that land use significantly impacts average air temperature, with factors such as increased vertical construction, greater circulation of medium- and large-sized motor vehicles, and the reduction of vegetation areas contributing to changes in average air temperature.