Gestão adaptativa às mudanças climáticas: uma análise situacional em municípios do semiárido brasileiro

Abstract

The impacts of global climate change affect all life forms on the planet. In Brazil, the semiarid region is highly affected by long droughts, and with the speed of the climate change process, the tendency is for the risk of disasters arising from extreme weather events to intensify. Risk scenarios demand prevention and response strategies to the possible damage that the environment may suffer in case of the occurrence of these extreme events. And in the context of climate change, these strategies must be based on political-governmental agendas with the aim of expanding the adaptive capacity of the system, based on actions that promote adaptation as a response to the impacts of climate change. However, most municipalities do not have management geared towards adapting to climate change, even those most susceptible to risks, climate threats and socio-environmental vulnerability. Based on this problem, the research proposed to analyze the management of the municipalities inserted in the PiancóPiranhas-Açu river basin, regarding the adaptive response capacity to the risks and threats of climatic extremes. Methodologically, the research carried out a mixed approach (quantitative and qualitative), where the Adaptive Capacity Management Index (IGCA) was developed, structured from binary socio-environmental indicators from the Municipal Basic Information Survey database (MUNIC/IBGE) relating to risk and disaster management, in order to establish a situational diagnosis on the capacity to manage disaster risks associated with climate change. In an experimental phase, the index was applied to the municipalities included in the territorial scope of the Seridó Hydrological Planning Unit, in Rio Grande do Norte (UPH Seridó RN). The results showed that the UPH Seridó RN is more prone to the threats inherent in the risks of climatological events; the municipalities had a higher rate of social than environmental vulnerability, and had a low capacity to manage the risks of climate change, which infers a “low” level in the management of adaptive capacity on a 5-level scale that goes from “very low” to “very high". Based on the results, it was reaffirmed that socioenvironmental and climatic issues are little incorporated in the municipalities of the UPH Seridó RN, whose municipal profiles allow inferring that this is a similar reality throughout the territory of the basin. The research leaves room for continuity in further studies, so that the field of analysis is better explored empirically as well.